One half of people crying if its 37% and 75% drop, and other half cries if its 5% and 30%...... You really think people will instantly have SM in like 1 month? 99% of players on private servers donate for Shadowlolurne.
I'm really really afraid for this changes. Icc 25h is already very very hard. I thought you boosted the old raids because the classes were much stronger since everybody is playing on 3.3.5. But for icc everything is well balanced. Even on retail Lich King was only killed with the 5% buff by Paragon after months of trying. I thought you might increase the health of some bosses or do other minor "buffs" but new mechanics and this much tuning is not necessary in my opinion.
We are not a hardcore guild and took a few IDs until we reached Anub 25 HC, so I wanted to calculate this for our guild.
If we clear everything in the first month, this means we killed 24 (4 + 4 + 7 + 9) Bosses in normal Mode. This would be equal to an average drop of 1,2 Shards (1,2 /50)
We will probably continue clearing normal mode for another month since hard modes might be to difficult without icc25 gear. This means we will kill 48 Bosses in the second month which equals 2,4 Shards. This means we would get about 3,6 Shards after 2 full months of raiding and clearing the content in normal mode. 3,6/50 shards.
Now imagine that we start with heroic mode and will clear every ID one additional boss in HM and also clear the whole raid afterwards.
So 10 Bosses (1 + 2 + 3 + 4) with 0.3 chance and 38 Bosses with 0.05 chance would equal 4.9 Shards after the third month.
Next month: 26 Bosses (5 + 6 + 7 + 8 ) with 0.3 and 22 Bosses with 0.05 would equal 8.9 Shards after the fourth month.
next month: 42 (9 + 10 + 11 + 12) with 0.3 and 6 Bosses with 0.05 would equal 12.9 Shards after the fifth month.
next month 48 Bosses with 0.3 chance would equal 14.4 Shards in the 6th month.
So after half a year of raiding with constant progress (which I don't think will be that smooth if icc will be tuned that much) we will get in total around 44.7 shards (1,2 + 2,4 + 4,9 + 8,9 + 12.9 + 14.4). This means that not even one of our melees will get SM after half a year of constantly raiding.
Please correct me if my math is wrong but this doesn't sound reasonable for me.
One quick note. If a guild will kill every heroic boss at the first possible time then this elite guild will still need around 4 1/2 months to get their first SM. And I think that this will be quit impossible even for our best guilds on this server.